Forecasting Renewable Energy: A Study by EGP and the Italian Air Force

Published on Wednesday, 14 December 2016

New analysis allowing better accuracy in the forecast of wind energy in the medium-term comes from a collaboration between Enel Green Power and the Meteorological Service of the Italian Air Force

From 15 to 17 November 2016, the “15th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems” was held in Vienna. This international meeting gathers experts of the sector of renewable energy from around the world.

For the occasion, Federico Fioretti from the Innovation and Sustainability, Global Renewable Energies division of Enel, presented the results of a study carried out in 2014-15 in collaboration with the Meteorological Service of the Italian Air Force, regarding the use of atmospheric models of numerical weather prediction (NWP) on a regional scale to improve accuracy in the medium-term (48-72 hours) forecast of wind energy.

In the study presented in Vienna, the fields of meteorological forecast provided by the operational model (COSMO-ME) of the Air Force’s meteorological service were used as inputs for a statistical model to predict wind energy, developed by Enel Green Power.

The collaboration with the Air Force’s Meteorological Service, which boasts decades of experience in the field of so-called “data assimilation” and is an international point of reference for meteorological forecast, allowed the creation of an extremely complete and detailed analysis, in order to take a further step forward in the medium-term forecast of renewables.

The activity carried out by EGP Innovation and Sustainability, Renewables Energy Management Italy and by Enel Engineering and Research falls into the line of Energy Yield Forecasting, in which Enel Green Power has been active for many years.

The correct forecast of energy that renewable plants, intrinsically unpredictable, can add to the grid in subsequent days is, together with energy storage technologies, one of the keys to making renewable energy ever more compatible with the electrical grid, dispatchable and active in the management and balance of the entire electrical system.